The end of all civilizations

In 2013 the United States extracted, in its country, amounts of oil equivalent to 60 percent of their nation’s oil consumption. Americans consume in average 10 liters of oil per person and day. But in 2019 the United States oil reserve days are basically over, unless we account for oil that comes from shale and difficult-to-reach oil reserves. The United States could live solely on Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves only realistically or optimistically, depending on how you look at it, 30 years if the Saudis had been able to pump up the oil in the required pace and if they sold their oil exclusively to the United States.

Canada sits on 170 billion barrels of crude oil, a fourth place in the world, and the country exports 2 671 million barrels of oil per day, most of which goes to the United States. And Venezuela, which exports oil to China but mostly to the United States, sits on one of the world’s two largest oil reserves, the other being Uganda, ie. about 300 billion barrels of oil for each of the two nations. Venezuela is in place 11 in the world when it comes to crude oil production. They export 1 514 million barrels of oil per day. China can buy just under half of the oil exports that the United States creams out of Venezuela. It is only because of Venezuela’s geographical location and nothing else, that China does not have a larger portion of the pie.

The United States imports a total of 7 850 million barrels of oil per day. That means they have to import more than half of these 7 850 million barrels of oil from the Middle East mainly. This would mean that their civilization can survive unaffected for more than 40 years by importing oil from just Saudi Arabia, Canada and Venezuela as long as production and the pie allotment remain constant. But then they would have no Allies in Europe to take into account and they must consider at least one European partner – Britain.

The oil reserves at the Golan Heights are estimated to exceed Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves. The CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019 doesn’t mention any evidence of major oil reserves in Israel, but this was expected at this stage, regardless of whether there is any significant oil in the ground at the Golan Heights or not. They do not like lying, but it is actually not proven beyond doubt that there is oil in large quantity at the Golan Heights. It could be an equally unsuccessful project as with the supposed gas in Siljansringen in Sweden three decades ago. A really long time ago a big meteorite struck the earth there and created an impact circle which now is a ringformed lake called Siljansringen.

The European Civilization may have 20 years of its lifetime left if we do not pump up our military muscles. The United States military force is an expeditionary one and will not be able to measure up to Europe’s total defense forces, at least not on the ground and at least not without a safe haven and deployment site and not without safe bases. But the Americans have no interest in occupying North-Western Europe. If the United States, together with Britain, are hogging the oil and running over or ignoring most European countries in the process, then England will be left to pick up the bill. It will end with an unintentionally castrating of Great Britain by the United States just as they were castrated by the Romans during the former migration period.

We do not behave like that. We sit on the best magnetic iron ore in the world, but we would never be so stupid that we thought we could become isolationistic while the rest of Europe or the world falls back to the Middle Ages. In that case, we would have to count on a war against an overwhelming opponent. Though in our case, a war against us by the Europeans had not been needed. We would have been goners logistically and materiel-wise anyway. America’s and Europe’s civilizations goes under together, with or without a great war. But good luck trying to get Trump to understand that!

Russia’s oil reserves are estimated to be 80 billion barrels (2017). It will be enough for 20 years if Russia is forced to supply Europe and China with the oil they are used to consuming throughout this time. Today, Russia exports ~50 percent of its oil production.

Azerbaijan’s oil will last for 23 years with its current production rate which is relatively low.

Norway’s oil reserves were 1/6 of the United States in 2017. The Norwegians produced 1 648 000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. They retained 253,000 of these barrels of oil for their own use in 2016. Export is at approximately 80 percent of the total production. Norway is able to produce oil for a further 10 years with the current production rate.

Sweden imported 394,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. 45 percent of the crude oil came from Russia. 26 percent came from Norway, Nigeria accounted for 10 percent Venezuela for 7 percent and Denmark accounted for 13 percent in 2016.

Sources; CIA WORLD FACTBOOK; and the part about Sweden’s oil imports from the blog Cornucopia? By Lars Wilderäng

The world’s oil reserves of 1 trillion 726 billion barrels of oil in 2017 are sufficient for the whole world for maybe 18 years from 2019. However, there are uncertainties in these estimates. New oil fields are discovered on regular basis, and since 1991, we have declared peak oil every year. Also the Ugandan oil reserves probably wreckes my estimation in part.

 

Phosphates

Phosphates are used for manure and is spread across farmlands around the world to achieve significantly larger crops. Estimates of phosphate production are sometimes difficult to understand because the phosphates are mined in different forms. The dominant form is ”Phosphate Rock”, a mineral that is usually mined in day brakes. Two thirds of the world production are mined in China, the United States and Morocco/Western Sahara. Morocco and the by Morocco occupied Western Sahara account for 30 percent of the export market.

US phosphate reserves will last for 30 years for US use only. The United States does not export phosphate ore. Neither do China. The world’s phosphate reserves are estimated to be around 15 billion tons, which is sufficient for the world-wide consumption for 90 years with current technology, according to the US Geological Survey. Phosphate production in the world will not come to a critical low level before the world’s oil reserves peter out. Thus, phosphate production in Morocco/Western Sahara is strategically secondary. This did not prevent the United States from making a bilateral trade deal with Morocco during 2006. The European Union didn’t jump on the train until two years later.

Roger M. Klang, Defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden

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Categories: Canada, China, CIA WORLD FACTBOOK, Crude oil, Deutschland, Donald Trump, Kina, Kristna Värdepartiet, Latinamerika, Råolja, Russia, Ryssland, Saudi-Arabia, South America, Sydamerika, Tyskland, USA, Venezuela | Etiketter: , , , , , , , , , | Lämna en kommentar

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