A work hypothesis
If you followed the introduction and my first lesson you will recognize that I sometimes repeat myself here. The information I am repeating is vital to understand the world. But I will to my utmost try not to continue doing that unnecessarily.
The so-called Saudi-led coalition, which the United States is an important part of, supports the legitimate authority in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition is trying to take control of the important port in the city of Hodeida, which is located by the Red Sea. The city is currently (2018) controlled by the Houthi militias. Yemen has its sea-pirates.
The proxy war that the Saudis and the United States are enforcing in Yemen with the destruction of the Hodeida port is all about safe pass for merchant ships in the Red Sea and its extension the Gulf of Aden and the North-West of the Indian Ocean. The Iranian regime is the instigator of the unrest in Yemen.
The trade routs at sea goes from the Middle East, Eastern Africa and East Asia into the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea and further up to Western Europe and the Eastern United States. The merchant ships also go in the other direction.
It is possible to extend the sea routes around the south of Africa but it is more common for ships to become wrecked or lose containers due to high sea, and the distance is considerably longer, and most merchant ships may not even be built to cover the extra distance without filling up on extra fuel oil.
Somali pirates have begun to use mother ships to significantly expand their reach. They now also use rocket launchers.
When comparing the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2015 with the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2018-2019, Uganda is not included as a state in the later issue. This Uganda has in common with Japan and Paraguay, which are also not included in this later issue. We can leave Japan aside for now, because the omission has less to do with natural resources and raw material or even sea routes, than it has to do with grand politics or grand strategy as it is usually called.
Paraguay may have been omitted from the fact book because they are a Latin American hub for illegal weapons trafficking, money laundering and drug trafficking. They have this in common with most of the Latin American countries. But, and above all, the support of terrorist organizations by possibly branches in the government differ Paraguay from the rest of Latin America. The willingness to end this do not appear to exist among the Paraguayan authorities.
Uganda, located in Africa’s inland 1,200 km southwest of Djibouti, sits according to oil prospects from 2008 on oil in the ground that has been estimated to be greater than or equal to that of the oil-fields in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf. ”Ugandan oil reserves can correspond to the total oil reserves of all of the Gulf countries put together”, according to Sally Kornfeld, analyst at the Office of Fossil Energy at the United States Department of Energy. Planning of the construction of refining capacity and pipelines are underway.
Who will put their hands on that oil? The main reason that the Americans put pressure on the Chinese in the South China Sea right now is Uganda and their decision on who will get to buy their oil is crucial to what’s going to happen in the world in the future. He who controls the choke-Points i.e. the straits in Southeast Asia, is likely to be the number one buyer of the Ugandan oil. It is either going to be the US or China.
It contradicts the view on the objective for the US Department of Defense, but the United States would rather see a full-scale war on China sooner than later. It actually is self-evident. A weak opponent is better than a strong opponent, if they have to fight in the first place.
It is possible to defeat Afghanistan in war. The day when the Chinese consider themselves to be strong enough to project their power-language in other parts of the world than China’s mainland, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and the South China Sea, they are likely to begin with completely crushing the pride of the Afghans, to overthrow the country so that it can be used as a grain storage and a logistic hub and springboard for invading Eastern Europe. In order for it to be possible, the Chinese must first make the country of Afghanistan their private brothel as once the Mongols did before them in history. This will cause in particular Eastern Europeans and Western Europeans to cheer, and that’s all in good order. The problem is, as I mentioned, that Afghanistan will only be a Chinese springboard for invading Europe, which will be the main objective for the Chinese.
But first, the Chinese must establish the Silk Road Economic Belt and secure their military transit routes through a number of countries and in multiple places. Beijing wishes transit and military access to the Malacca Strait and other straits in Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea as well as the Persian Gulf to name the most important examples. These sea-routes are also part of the Silk Road Economic Belt.
Donald Trump and the United States do not wish to see a strong maritime China. The company Genie Oil and Gas will extract the oil below the Golan Heights. Trump wants to protect the shipping-lane through the Strait of Hormuz, Malacca Strait, Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait, Indian Ocean, Arab Sea, Red Sea, Suez Canal and Gibraltar Channel by forcing the Chinese to invade eastern Europe by land and not the United States allies in Western Europe by sea.
A Chinese invasion will come at some time, we just do not know when although we know that it will not come in the next few years. The United States powerful nuclear arsenal guarantees that the Chinese will not try to invade the United States mainland. You may think that invasion scenarios should be a thing of the past, but it is only we westerners who think like so.
According to my work hypothesis, Trump is doing his best to sidestep, dance and juggle with various statements in the purpose of throwing gravel in the eyes of people and nations to appear as Syria’s savior in need when it’s really about safe trade-routs for merchant ships. So keep an eye on the ball! But I would have done the same practical things in Trumps seat. Though I would at the same time have told the truth to my people and to the world.
Vladimir Putin wants to push the Chinese attack routs as far down to the Indian Ocean as they possibly can. Kremlin Russians are afraid of losing influence to China over Azerbaijan and Russia’s narrow southern buffer front. There in the Caspian Sea Russia and Azerbaijan have major oil reserves.
India is the third largest crude oil importer in the world. The Indians want to avert the Chinese interest in the other direction to Argentina, the Falklands and South America.
Chile and Argentina together form all of the southern parts of South America. Chile is located by the Pacific Ocean and Argentina is located by the Atlantic Ocean. Chile is in the US pocket and Argentina is largely in China’s pocket. Both Chile, and Argentina in particular, have plenty of raw materials.
Have a map in front of you when doing your homework today!
Can you see any possibilities today for the Chinese to project enough power, with only two available air-craft carriers, in the South China Sea and extensively into the Indian Ocean to confine the US in order to controll who Uganda shall sell their oil to?
Both the US Navy and the Chinese navy each have access to a safe port and then some in the Indian Ocean. Chinese port is on the large island of Sri Lanka just South of India. American port is on a small island in the middle of the Indian Ocean.
The Chinese reportedly have a port and an airport in the South-West of Pakistan in Gwadar in the Gulf of Oman. But the Americans have airports in Kuwait (semi-american), Qatar and UAE and a port in Bahrain in the Persian Gulf.
Both China and the US have ports and air-strips in Djibouti by the African Horn.
Consider the Malacca Strait south of the China Sea. What can you find out about the by Malacca Strait surrounding countries? Who has the means to controll the Malacca Strait? Is it perhaps Malaysia even?
Roger M. Klang, defense political spokesman for the Christian Values Party (Kristna Värdepartiet) in Sweden