Ryssland

the wibbly wobbly jelly of an idea

Andrew Wallace skrev på Kungliga Krigsvetenskapsakademin följande, bland mycket annat (som ett svar på generalmajor Jonny Lindfors m.fl. senaste artikel):

”When the Soviet Union collapsed, Sweden cut back it’s defences and we had a “strategic time out”. When Russia reasserted itself, Sweden goes into panic mode as it rushes to rebuild its defence.”

Nej Andrew, ingen har fått panik! Du drar samma felaktiga slutsats som Winston Churchill en gång drog om svenskarna under det kalla kriget. Det gör du för att till ditt förtret så ligger inte UK lokaliserat granne med Ryssland som det gör med Finland, Baltikum och Sverige. Du vill helt enkelt att UK ska vara i hetluften och inte Sverige. Men i det här artikelsvaret av dig så förolämpar du åtminstone inte vår intelligens. Dock så antyder du, nej säger att NATO har beslutsrätt i hur Sverige utformar sitt försvar. För det första så har inte NATO det enligt NATO-stadgarna. För det andra så förväntar man sig att NATO hyser förtroende för att Sverige har NATOs behov i åtanke när vi bygger upp försvaret. Om du Andrew hade brytt dig om att studera Jonnys m.fl. senaste artikel så hade du märkt att författarna specifikt ingående tog upp frågan om hur vi ska bygga försvaret av Sverige så att det anpassas även till NATOs behov. För det tredje, vad NATO-stadgarna däremot säger är att medlemsländerna ska kunna försvara sitt eget revir. Andrew skrev:

”When we have something implemented we have moved from the fluffy, fuzzy, cloud to the wibbly wobbly jelly of an idea and on to something that has solidified and become concrete. Now we need to test it. And that’s part of the function of exercise. We need to take what we have out into the field and see if it can do what it is supposed to do. See what it takes to break it. More lessons are to be learnt here and fed back through the previous stages.”

Men han kom inte med ett enda förslag på vilka vapensystem, vilka vapen som vi skulle implementera och som skulle passa med vårt taktiska tillvägagångssätt. Inget konkret alls kom han med. Han nämnde kanske nåt med drönare i förbigående. Duh! Den kunde vi räkna ut själva. Så varken fluffy, fuzzy cloud eller wibbly wobbly jelly presenterade han något förslag till. Vi klarar det här bäst själv om det är vad hjälp vi kan få.

https://kkrva.se/once-more-unto-the-breach-dear-friends-once-more/

Kategorier: Östersjöinloppen, Baltic Sea, Barents Sea, Crude oil, Defense, Great Britain, Kina, Kreml, Kremlin, NATO, Russia, Ryssland, United Kingdom, USA, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping | Etiketter: , , , | Lämna en kommentar

Nordens försvarsbudgetar – en jämförelse

Norge bidrog tidigare med den största försvarsbudgeten per capita i Norden. 2024 den näst minsta efter Finlands och Sveriges, men fortfarande över Danmarks. Norge bidrar med bara ~2% (det exakta talet har jag inte kunnat fastställa, men minst 2%) av BNP för att de är ett litet land, hårt trängt av Ryssland i Barents hav. De har det tuffare än vad Sverige har det. Den ekonomiska biten av en försvarsekonomi är viktig men befolkningsmängden är minst lika viktig. Är man färre som kan försvara sitt land så kommer man kanske inte att kunna uppnå tillräckliga förstärkningar när man har en övermäktig fiende. Men de baltiska länderna har ovanligt höga försvarsbudgetar i procent av BNP ska jag medge. Men dessa länder är nästan i ett konstant gråzon krigstillstånd med Ryssland, mer så än Norge och Sverige. Men visst, det går att göra. Säg det till danskarna vars försvarsminister beklagade sig över Norges lilla bidrag i förhållande till sina oljepengar!

Finlands försvarsbudget är 2.3% av BNP (2024)

Sveriges försvarsbudget är 2.2% av BNP (2024)

Norges försvarsbudget är ~2% av BNP (2024)

Danmarks försvarsbudget når 2% av BNP först år 2030

Norge har en BNP per capita på 118,470 USD (2022)

Danmark har en BNP per capita på 77,370 USD (2022)

Sverige har en BNP per capita på 67,630 USD (2022)

Finland har en BNP per capita på 59,570 USD (2022)

Sverige har en BNP på 591.2 miljarder USD (2022)

Norge har en BNP på 579.4 miljarder USD (2022)

Danmark har en BNP på 400.2 miljarder USD (2022)

Finland har en BNP på 282.9 miljarder USD (2022)

Estlands försvarsbudget ligger på 2.73% av BNP (2024)

Lettlands och Litauens försvarsbudgetar ligger på en bra bit över 2% av BNP (2024)

Roger Klang

Kategorier: Östersjöinloppen, Baltic Sea, Barents Sea, Defense, Island, Kreml, Kremlin, NATO, Politics, Russia, Ryssland, USA | Etiketter: , , , , | Lämna en kommentar

Nothing New Under the Sun

Is the name of an article by Andrew Wallace at the Royal Academy of Military Sciences.

The author is Dr, BEng(hons) PhD EurIng

Pretty much everything he writes in the article on Kungliga Krigsvetenskapsakademin is nonsense. You don’t get wise to the article at all. Note, I’m not a fool. And I’m not ignorant. The question is whether he has even made an effort. Despite 28 references at the end of the article, there is no link to the article Wallace responds to by Major General Jonny Lindfors (a hardcore Swedish war veteran with permanent physical war injuries), Colonel Mats Ludvig, Lieutenant Colonel Filip Scheynius, and Lieutenant Colonel Jan Lundberg, which you can click to get to. But at least the article that Wallace is responding to is named at the beginning and can be found. It would be really bad otherwise. The article by the said defense force representatives in SDF (Swedish Defense Forces) is initiated (of course) and makes a hell of a lot more sense than Wallace’s article. It is cognitively farsighted. It is called: Multi-domäna operationer (MDO) – en Arméangelägenhet

I propose you read both articles below and make up your own mind about Wallace’s article. Does it make sense or not, that is the question.

Roger Klang

Kategorier: China, Defense, Kina, Kreml, Kremlin, NATO, Russia, Ryssland, USA | Lämna en kommentar

Putin’s new main plan

I found some interesting facts while interpreting information in a video from RealLifeLore called ”How Ukraine is Breaking Through Russia’s Naval Blockade” and I connected them to some interesting recent news from the 25th of July up to the 27th of July, on Sveriges Radios SR;Ekot.

The first article reads (and it is a translated article, as are they all):

Published Tuesday July 25 at 6.45 PM

Putin to discuss Ukraine with African leaders

Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss the war in Ukraine with several African leaders. This will take place at a dinner during a meeting in St. Petersburg on Friday, July 28th.

The information comes from a statement from the Kremlin’s foreign policy advisor, according to the Reuters news agency.

49 African countries are to attend and it is believed to be largely about the grain agreement that Russia recently withdrew from.

The second article reads:

Published Wednesday July 26 at 2:28 PM

NATO and Ukraine discuss grain corridor

The NATO-Ukraine Council is currently meeting in Brussels to discuss the security situation in the Black Sea.

The need to establish a secure grain corridor will be discussed, according to the NATO spokesperson.

The agreement that Russia and Ukraine signed in 2022 has not been extended, and Russia announces that all ships arriving at Ukrainian ports will be viewed as potential military targets.

The third article has been removed and it is unclear when exactly it was published, but somewhere between the 26th and the 27th of July. The article’s headline reads:

”Putin promises free grain to several African countries”

The fourth article reads:

Published Thursday July 27 at 7:29 AM

Putin is looking for alliances in Africa – now the summit begins

The Russian-Africa summit, which brings together leaders from Africa and Russia, opens in Saint Petersburg on Thursday.

As Russia becomes more isolated in the outside world, Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly turning to Africa.

But according to the Financial Times newspaper, fewer than half of the African leaders who signed up for the meeting, plan to show up, while Kremlin is saying the West has influenced them.

The fifth article reads:

Published Thursday July 27 at 8.13 AM

Russian missile attack on Ukrainian port city – one person dead

In the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, important infrastructure has been damaged in a Russian missile attack during the night, the region’s governor says, according to Reuters.

One person is said to have been killed in the attack, which is said to have been aimed at a cargo terminal.

Odessa’s port has come under several attacks after Russia last week did not extend the grain deal that previously allowed Ukraine to ship grain safely through the Black Sea.

End of articles

So what is Putin up to?

Clear as hell is that Putin wants to sever the Ukrainian ties with African and Middle Eastern grain beneficiaries, and limit Ukraine’s influence in its southern sphere in order to isolate Zelensky and Ukraine. That is the ultimate short-time goal for Putin. It is probably going to lead to starvation in some poverty-stricken places and for some indigent families, and that is why Putin allegedly was promising free grain to several African countries. But he didn’t promise free food out of the goodness of his heart! He did it to tie the African nations to Russia’s influence sphere, simultaneously with his thwarting of Ukraine’s existing influence sphere in Africa and some Muslim countries, and also the West.

So why did Sveriges Radio remove the content in the article called ”Putin promises free grain to several African countries”?

I don’t know.

Is it because of a Ukrainian and Western clandestine counter-plan, and they don’t want to alert the Kremlin about it?

Is it because Ukraine and the West are lacking a good plan right now, and they don’t want to alert the Kremlin about it?

Is it a non-causal coincidence?

Is there anything to gain from it, by the US I suppose, so that the US has put pressure on Sveriges Radio leaving Sveriges Radio none the wiser?

Could there be another reason?

I am going to reach out so that I don’t unnecessarily reveal anything delicate for the Ukrainians. I know that the armed forces in Sweden and the Swedish secret service MUST, have a policy of keeping information a one-way streak. But I am going to ask them if it is appropriate to reveal this information right now. If they give me the answer ”Yes”, or if they do not answer at all, I will publish this on several platforms, audio and blog, come this weekend. If they say ”No”, I will not publish this text at all right at this moment in time. This text so far will reach them at latest tomorrow Monday the 31st of July.

And the sources for this lesson were:

RealLifeLore

And

SR;Ekot

Roger Klang

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/putin-soker-allianser-i-afrika-toppmote-inleds-i-dag

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/rysk-missilattack-mot-ukrainsk-hamnstad-en-person-dod

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/putin-lovar-gratis-spannmal-till-flera-afrikanska-lander

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/nato-och-ukraina-diskuterar-spannmalskorridor

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/putin-ska-diskutera-ukraina-med-afrikanska-ledare

Kategorier: Africa, Defense, Kreml, Kremlin, Russia, Ryssland, Vladimir Putin | Etiketter: , , | Lämna en kommentar

Possible shift in Biden’s grand strategic plans

Never assume that a world leader is good. I want to emphasize the importance that we should not be naive! Biden is thinking of the United States and Americans, when he conducts his politics. But if it does not affect the abilities for America or Americans to economically strengthen or at least maintain their leading position in the world, then of course he can throw a bone to a party outside of AUKUS and the border states of Canada and New Zealand, especially if Biden’s country benefits from it. Israel also has a key position, but I can’t really read out why the Israelis’ treatment of the Palestinians and the West Bank, plays such an important role in Biden’s and Blinken’s plans. However, you can read what Blinken said in black and white with the headline;  ”US warns Israel: Peace with Saudis getting ‘tougher, if not impossible’”; on the online medium World Israel News on July 5, 2023. Quote;

”We’ve told our friends and allies in Israel that if there’s a fire burning in their backyard, it’s going to be a lot tougher, if not impossible, to actually both deepen the existing agreements as well as to expand them to include potentially Saudi Arabia,” said Blinken.

He also said, quote;

“It’s also, at least in our judgment as Israel’s closest friend and ally, profoundly not in Israel’s interest for this to happen—both because of the added degree of difficulty that this presents for pursuing normalization agreements, or deepening them, but also because of the practical consequences,” he added. End quote

Why is it not marginal? As for the importance of the Abraham accords, I can understand why the US does not want it to develop between Israel and Saudi-Arabia right now. But it doesn’t seem like the haussed to the sky Israeli intelligence service Mossad really understands how the land lays or why it is so. They persist in opposing Biden’s plans. They have done so for a long time. Of course, the Israelis have an interest in the Middle East, but they should have fathomed that it is not in their interest that the United States fall to pieces by internal division, like once the Roman Empire did before them. We here in Sweden observe how the Israelis act more and more like their antagonists in Iran, Lebanon and Palestine. It’s just that Israel is more powerful than their enemies and they also have more powerful allies.

Have we considered that Israel is a special country? It is the land where Judaism, Islam and Christianity converge – in Jerusalem. In addition, there are elements of reincarnation in Judaism. We can think what we want about it, but the land of Israel is important to our own security. They are important to the whole of Europe’s security. The Israelis know this, why doesn’t the EU realize this? It is mindboggling to the Israelis. We cannot let them perish.

It seems as if we are needed all of a sudden. Saudi-Arabia may be the new enemy. But don’t listen too much when Biden says that, quote; ”We have always strongly supported Sweden to get Sweden into NATO” End quote. Empirical evidence shows the opposite. Not once has Biden commented on Erdogan’s tango dance with the Swedish government, but he has, under greatest possible silence, left us alone to cope as best we can in the recent past. It is clear who led in that tango dance, it wasn’t Ulf Kristersson in any case. (Spoiler alert, it was Erdogan.) But it can be differently now, Biden can show a ”good” side if he wants to. It’s just that, as an Irish-American, he doesn’t like us Swedes at all. But probably even an Irishman can like Swedes. But not him. Then I don’t like him, and I will turn away my gaze when he is led screaming and kicking to the guillotine by his countrymen. The reactionaries always win in the long run. For being the world’s most powerful man, he poorly realizes that Sweden has been one of the biggest guarantors that the US will remain the master of the world, by our support purchase of US security bonds and us consistently refraining from selling them when the dollar has been under attack. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg of what we’ve done for the United States. But ingratitude is the wages of the weak.

Now a question. Are the Swedes prepared to contribute with troops in a future American war in the Middle East, for example against Saudi-Arabia and, in the extension, China? Are the Swedes prepared for a two-front war? Then we should join NATO. Otherwise, we will probably have to fight Russia alone. But we will win against Russia, mind you. Personally, I do not want to join NATO, because I think it will create greater strain on us in the long run. One must not forget that we have a domestic, quote; ”situation”; to deal with, simultaneously. Of our two supposed choices, it is only an all-out Swedish war against Russia on Swedish soil that can straighten up our backbone and make, quote; ”our”; criminals listless, which means that in that case we can turn the tide in Sweden. Also remember that a Swedish NATO membership in no way provides any guarantees that we will be able to stay out of a war against Russia in the event of a major war. An American war against one or more actors is in the long run inevitable unless the Gulf states change their mind, because China gets most of the oil from the Persian Gulf oil states and the US has domestic oil for perhaps only 12 more years of consumption if you are to believe the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2023-2024 . I don’t think it’s possible to achieve, but if the US were to run its motor park and its many fossil fueled powerplants on domestic oil alone, that time would almost be halved to only six years of consumption. It has become more difficult to calculate precisely, because the CIA has deliberately made it so in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2023-2024 compared to previous editions of the book. Maybe you can thank Me for that.

It is established in the CIA WORLD FACTBOOK that Saudi-Arabia, just like Iran, and every other oil producing country in the Persian Gulf, does more business with China than with the United States. Saudi-Arabia has literally extended a hand to Iran recently. They are suicidal. It’s clear as hell that it has the potential to overturn the US original game plan. But in that case, it’s not the tiles that are moved alternate, the whole boardgame is likely to change.

My name is Roger Klang

Kategorier: China, CIA WORLD FACTBOOK, Crude oil, Defense, Irak, Iran, Israel, Kina, Kreml, Kremlin, NATO, Persian Gulf, Persiska viken, Politics, Råolja, Russia, Ryssland, Saudi-Arabia, South China Sea, Syria, Turkey, USA | Etiketter: , , | Lämna en kommentar

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